Monday, December 21, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part III

The third post of my series explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team takes a look at the remaining teams in the NFC South and NFC West.

Click here to read why the other teams in the NFC South and NFC West won't get any comp picks in 2010.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.


Atlanta — The Falcons lost four qualifying players and signed either one or two. They should receive a third- or fourth-round pick for losing Dominique Foxworth and a fifth or sixth for losing Michael Boley. If Brett Romberg does not qualify, the Falcons also will receive a pick as compensation for losing Grady Jackson, likely in the seventh round.

Carolina — The Panthers didn't sign any qualifying players, so they will receive a comp pick for each qualifying player lost. They should get a fifth or sixth for Geoff Hangartner and a sixth or seventh for Frank Omiyale. There is a small chance that Mark Jones also will qualify. If so, the Panthers would get a seventh for him.

Tampa Bay — The Buccaneers will not get a comp pick. They lost only two qualifying players, and they signed either three or four.

Arizona — The Cardinals could get a third- or fourth-round pick, or they could get nothing. They lost one player who definitely will qualify and signed one player who definitely will qualify. The question is whether Terrelle Smith will count as a player lost and whether Jason Wright will count as a player signed. At this point, I would project that both of them will qualify based on their contract values, leaving the Cardinals with no comp picks. If Wright qualfies and Smith doesn't, they wouldn't get a comp pick, either. But if Smith qualifies and Wright doesn't, the Cardinals would get a third- or fourth-round pick as compensation for losing Antonio Smith.

San Francisco — The 49ers should get one comp pick, with a very small chance that they'll get two. They signed three players who qualify and lost four who qualify and one who is on the bubble but almost certainly will not qualify. Their comp pick would be in the sixth or seventh round, most likely the seventh. If they do get a second comp pick, it would be in the seventh.

Seattle — Any comp picks the Seahawks get will be in the seventh round. The only question is how many. They signed two players who will qualify and one who might qualify. They lost three players who will qualify and two who might. The various combinations of John Owens qualifying as a player signed, Bobby Engram qualifying as a player lost and/or Floyd Womack qualifying as a player lost could result in the Seahawks getting one, two or even three seventh-round comp picks.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part II

In the second post of my series explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team, it's time to take a look at the remaining teams in the NFC East and NFC North.

Click here to read why the other teams in the NFC East and NFC North won't get any comp picks in 2010.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.


Philadelphia — The Eagles signed three players who will qualify for the comp picks equation and lost five players who will qualify, so they should receive two picks. The only player they lost whose compensatory value is higher than a seventh-round pick is Brian Dawkins, and the signing of Stacy Andrews, whose average contract value is almost twice as much, cancels out the loss of Dawkins. Therefore, the Eagles should receive two comp picks in the seventh round.

Minnesota — The Vikings lost two qualifying players and signed one, giving them one comp pick. The signing of Karl Paymah cancels out the loss of their lower-valued player lost, and that is Darren Sharper, whose performance this season is irrelevant to the equation. That leaves the Vikings with a pick as compensation for losing Matt Birk, in either the fifth or sixth round.

Green Bay — The Packers lost Colin Cole and didn't sign anyone who will qualify. They should receive a comp pick in either the fifth or sixth round.

Chicago — The Bears will not receive a comp pick. They signed two players who will qualify, and they lost one who will qualify and one (Brandon McGowan) who almost certainly will not qualify. Even if McGowan somehow qualifies, the combined values of the players signed is more than that of the players lost, so the Bears will not even receive a "net value" pick.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part I

To begin my series of posts explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team, I'll take a look at nine teams who definitely won't be getting any true comp picks in 2010. They are Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, New Orleans, the New York Giants, St. Louis and Washington. (Note that the posts in this series are not my final projections and are subject to change, but they are my best estimations at this point in time.) There might be other teams that won't get any comp picks, either, and they will be addressed later in the series.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.

As a reminder, teams cannot receive a true comp pick if they signed more qualifying players than they lost. If they signed as many as they lost, the only true comp pick they could get is what I call a "net value" comp pick. Those are awarded at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks. To get a "net value" pick, a team must have lost the same number of qualifying players as they signed, and the players they lost must have a combined value that is significantly higher than the players they signed.


Here's the situation for each of these nine teams —


Cleveland — The Browns signed three players who will qualify and two more who might qualify. They lost only one player who definitely will qualify and two others who are on the bubble to qualify. Even if both bubble players that were lost qualify for the equation and neither of the bubble players the Browns signed qualify, the combined value of the players signed is greater than that of the players lost. That means the Browns won't even get a "net value" comp pick.

Dallas — The Cowboys signed three qualifying players and lost two, plus one who is on the bubble for qualifying. Even if the bubble player qualifies and the Cowboys break even in the equation, the values on each side of the ledger are too close for the Cowboys to get a "net value" pick.

Denver — The Broncos lost only one qualifying player and signed 10. They definitely won't get anything.

Detroit — The Lions lost three qualifying players and one who might qualify. They signed seven players who qualify, so they will not get a comp pick.

Houston — The Texans lost only one qualifying player and signed three.

New Orleans — The Saints lost only one qualifying player. They signed three who will qualify and two more who are on the bubble.

New York Giants — The Giants lost two players who will qualify and one who might qualify. They signed four players who will qualify.

St. Louis — The Rams lost only one player who might qualify. They signed three players who will qualify and one who might.

Washington — The Redskins lost only one player who will qualify (Demetric Evans). They signed one who definitely will qualify (Albert Haynesworth) and two others who are on the bubble. Even if neither of the bubble players qualifies, Haynesworth's value is far greater than Evans' value, so the Redskins would not get a "net value" pick.


A few of those teams have a chance to get an additional non-compensatory pick, if the NFL awards fewer than 32 true comp picks. If fewer than 32 are awarded, the NFL adds picks as if the eighth round were starting, until a total of 32 additional comp picks and non-comp picks have been awarded.

The Rams, Browns, Lions, Redskins and possibly the Texans could be in contention for non-comp picks, depending on their position in the final draft order and how many non-comp picks are awarded, if any.