Thursday, January 7, 2010

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part V

The fifth post in this series explaining the compensatory pick possibilities for each team takes a look at the remaining teams in the AFC North.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.

Click here to read why Cleveland will not receive a comp pick this year.


Cincinnati — The Bengals will receive a comp pick for the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and it almost certainly will be in the third round. If Laveranues Coles counts in the equation, the Bengals will not receive another comp pick. If Coles does not count, they also will receive a comp pick for Stacy Andrews, in either the fourth or fifth round. Click here and scroll down to read about why Coles might not count in the equation.

Baltimore — The Ravens signed four players who will qualify and lost four players who will qualify, so they will not receive a true comp pick. They might receive a "net value" comp pick, if the combined value of the players they lost is sufficiently higher than the combined value of the players they signed. Whether that is the case will be determined by the final values of the players involved.

Pittsburgh — The Steelers lost three qualifying players and didn't sign any, so they will receive three comp picks. They should receive a fifth-round comp pick for Bryant McFadden, a fifth or sixth (most likely a fifth) for Nate Washington and a seventh for Byron Leftwich.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Curious on Steelers picks why you see only a 5th for McFadden at $5mil/yr rather than a 4th?

Also same with Leftwich - he signed at 3.25mil/yr.. I'm assuming his limited contribution is what drops him from 6th to 7th rather than his contract $s?

AdamJT13 said...

McFadden signed for $5 million per season, but not all of that counts in the comp formula. Based on his contract and playing time, my formula for estimating the comp picks puts his value in the fifth round. That is based on previous years' comp picks and the annual increases of the thresholds for each round.

Leftwich signed for $2 million per season. His 2010 bonus that was tied to his 2009 playing time -- which he might not have earned anyway -- does not count in the formula.

Anonymous said...

Is your projection of a 4th or 5th for Stacy Andrews based on his playing time (still recovering from injury)? He signed for pretty big dollars ($42 mil), so I thought the Bengals might get a third for him. Of course, this is contingent on the Coles determination, although I am hopeful the NFL rules that a cut (it essentially was).

AdamJT13 said...

The Andrews pick is based on his value in the formula, which is a combination of his salary and playing time. His contract was for six years and a little less than $39 million, and not all of that is included in the formula. And he didn't get a lot of playing time. His value probably will be in the fourth round, but I won't project that for sure until I get some more information and make my final projections.

Anonymous said...

Hey AT.......

Why aren't the bengals scheduled to get a 7th for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who got starts for the Bills this year ?

AdamJT13 said...

The signing of J.T. O'Sullivan has to cancel out one of the Bengals' losses. Fitzpatrick has the lowest value of the players they lost, so O'Sullivan cancels out Fitzpatrick.

Anonymous said...

Question about the Ravens. I thought 10 year plus vets don't count in the calculation of comp picks. If this is the case then wouldn't baltimore land a 3rd for bart scott.

AdamJT13 said...

Players with 10 years of experience still qualify for the equation. What we discovered last year, with the case of Alan Faneca, was that a team can't get higher than a fifth-round comp pick for a 10-year veteran. But they still do qualify.

What I wonder is whether that limit is placed on the comp pick after the formula is calculated, or whether the player's value in the formula is limited.

Let's say, for example, a team lost a sixth-year player with a third-round comp value and a sixth-year player with a fifth-round comp value, but it signed an 11-year veteran whose contract value and playing time would be enough to give him a third-round comp value if no limit was applied.

Would that 11-year veteran have a third-round value and cancel out the loss of the third-round player, giving that team a fifth-round comp pick? Or would he have a fifth-round value and cancel out the fifth-round player, leaving the team with a third-round comp pick?

At some point, I will go back over all of the years of comp picks and see whether that rule has come into play.

Anonymous said...

The Ravens also lost Marcus Douglas, does he count for the equation.

AdamJT13 said...

Douglas was released by the Ravens, so he does not count in the equation.